I’m going to write more about this shortly but having had my iPad for about 3 weeks I have to say that the iPad and other devices like it are going to murder large sections of the Windows based market.
And as a Windows software developer, that doesn’t make me happy.
If you are producing “stuff” the Windows-centric world is still central. But for everyone else who are consumers of content, these new devices are a huge threat.
It’s not the form factor per se. Not that it’s a “tablet”. I’ll boil it down:
1. Instant on. It just works. I want to check email, look at my schedule for the day, look at Facebook, view something on YouTube, check out some news headlines, or just watch a movie, the iPad (and future devices of its class) are just much more convenient.
I love my ThinkPad T400. But when I go to it, I have to pray whether it’ll come out of sleep. If it does come out of sleep, it’ll be slow. Maybe it will be out of batteries. Who knows. What I do know is that it’s far too slow as a consumer device. Netbooks are even worse. It seems like such a little thing – instant on. But it’s the difference between a DVR and a VCR in terms of leap of effective functionality.
2. Speed. Similar to #1, I can check my email, look at my various RSS feeds and scan my schedule in less than 30 seconds. On a Windows based PC, I’d still be waiting for Outlook to get done doing its thing or dealing with some Windows update that came in during the night that rebooted my machine. (and yes, I know you can alter these settings but with Windows, Microsoft has made productivity the enemy and made all the defaults set to fight productivity). If I just want to check something out on Wikipedia or check a web page, nothing beats the speed of an iPad (or a future Android based tablet).
3. The App store. I have downloaded (and paid for) a lot of $2.00 programs that are just amazing. It’s not that you couldn't’t make these on the PC, it’s just that people would scream that it should be free. And as a developer, I can tell you, I won’t spend time making stuff “for free” when I could be spending that time with my kids unless it’s a labor of love. As a result, a lot of cool little programs are being made because developers can actually get paid for making cool stuff.
Now, some of these things apply to an iPod Touch or an Android mobile device or an iPhone. But the form factor (size of the device) are key here in terms of usability.
The 3 things I mention here are so outshine the Windows PC experience that if Microsoft doesn’t get off its duff and start addressing them soon then I predict Windows will become purely a content creation device whose content is primarily consumed elsewhere. There’s really no excuse that in 2010, Windows is in the shape its in (particularly with regard to instant on).
The iPad is only the beginning. Once Android devices and WebOS devices show up, it could spell the beginning of the end of Windows dominance.
Watch a movie on the iPad? Convenient? Not on that small ass screen it's not
. If it puts it on to a TV, then maybe, sure. Now that I said that, I'm breaking the rest of the reply down as I'm of "two minds" on the matter, plus a thought at the end you may or may not take seriously.
Thought One: Don't give up, Frogboy. Adapt. If need be, make a new branch of Stardock dedicated to making these little $2 Apps and bank on it. You could also just keep making the AWESOME things you make now for the PC. Make owning a PC Fun and Easy with Stardock products and make As Many of them as You Can. Some people, even though the market will be small, would buy a PC just so they could enjoy your PC products. I know because I bought my X-Box360 solely so I could play the few titles that don't cross over to the PC and the Wii. I only buy 4 or 5 X-Box360 games a year, sometimes a few more, or a few less. It's a "Niche". PC gaming or even using may come down to also being a "Niche", but it would be a niche YOU OWN. Don't give up the ghost. I have faith in your abilities and in Stardock and if you sold stock I'd be the first person in line with a hand-full of cash wanting to buy.
Thought Two: This might come off the wrong way so don't take it to sound bad, I don't mean it that way. Ask your-self, "Why do I Care?". Why do You care? You're already a Multi-Millionaire. You could sell off the company and Retire RIGHT NOW. I'm just guessing as I obviously have no idea what your personal finances are but I'm guessing you have enough that You, your kids, your Gran-kids, and possibly even your Great-Gran-Kids would NEVER have to work a day in their lives. Assuming the market doesn't crash completely you could bank the Millions and live quite comfortably on the interest Alone. What is the interest per month on 2 Million Dollars these days? A thousand dollars? Two thousand dollars? Let's just guess you have 5 Million dollars in the bank and the interest on that is $4,000 a month. If you can't live decently on $4,000 a month something is wrong with the way you live. I can live comfortably on $2,000 a month, still feed my-self, my wife, my pets, pay my rent, my bills, and even have money left over to buy a new game or two....on 2k a month. If PC's really do "Die Out" as far as the general consumer go you're set for life anyway. You said it your-self a few weeks ago in a reply to some-one here on these very forums "How many millions do I need exactly?". Remember that? Some of your employees might have to look for future employment, but you won't.
Final Thoughts: Like you said, if Microsoft doesn't get off their asses and do something soon, all us PC users are in for trouble in a few years time. Why wait on Microsoft. You have the Resources, You have the man-power working for you, You have the Knowledge in your staff.....Why don't you take Stardock into the OS Business? With all the things you make that change a OS, all the upgrade and features you integrate with your awesome software, isn't the next logical step to make a OS your-self? (by your-self I mean Stardock of course) Just in making the things you do you show that the general public is largely unhappy with how Windows works. Your Programs and Apps change that and people buy them up. People would buy a Stardock OS that uses all those features and more. Knowing the Awesomeness that is Stardock, I'm confident you could make a new Operating System that would make Windows look like a hole in the wall. Make the jump. You'd OWN that too.
All the best, Raven X