With the recent announcement that DeskScapes 2.0 will be out by February and that it will work on all versions of Windows Vista, the question is no longer if but rather when will animated wallpaper be widely available. Stardock expects to release the first beta of it to Object Desktop users before Christmas and include some premium animated wallpapers (which we call "Dreams") with it.
So how mainstream will animated wallpapers become? It's an open question. Like all customization, the answer is, most people won't use it. Most people don't even change their default wallpapers. But I believe that animated wallpapers will become surprisingly popular. Here's why:
In the past month, Dreams have more entries in the top 30 than any other category other than WindowBlinds. And considering that only users of Windows Vista Ultimate can even use them at present, that's an incredible statistic. And considering how gradual Vista adoption has been overall and that Ultimate users make up only a tiny fraction of that group, one can imagine a future where animated wallpaper is quite popular.
Some people have argued that animated wallpapers are a waste of system resources. And while it is true that some animated wallpapers (particularly video ones) can use quite a bit of CPU, that's not the general case. Moreover, I remember people who thought static wallpapers were a waste because, after all, a 1024x768x24bit wallpaper used over two megabytes of memory which, back in the 90s was a lot of memory. What seems resource intensive one day seems trivial in later days.
Like regular wallpapers, the popularity of an animated wallpaper will depend on its quality. Regular wallpapers can be pretty obnoxious. Animated wallpapers have the capacity of being even more obnoxious since they move. But that doesn't mean animated wallpapers can't be compelling.
Only time will tell but I suspect that animated wallpapers will become an extremely hot commodity in the coming years. We'll see.