If Microsoft's Vista theme customization effort is anything remotely like Windows Plus Pack (the only time I’ve truly felt ripped-off by Microsoft) or the handful of pitiful themes and “fun packs” they offer for free download, I’d say Stardock has nothing to worry about. In fact, as others have said, the tantalizing yet unfulfilled potential of Vista’s GUI would probably generate even more business for Stardock.
However, just a smattering of quality, easily managed GUI customizations could spell trouble for Stardock. That’s because, in my opinion, Stardock and WinCustomize still cater mostly to a relatively small, but devoted group of enthusiasts. This should probably be in its own separate post, but here goes...
I think the typical Windows user (Vista or otherwise) would love the ideal or goal of skinning, but only the afore-mentioned select group of enthusiasts is ever going to put up with what it currently takes to chase that ideal. I don’t think the typical user is ever going to purchase--separately or as a package-- 19 different components, plus several more free add-ons with paid full version upgrades, premium suites, subscription fees, other add-ons and wade though 5000 slightly different clocks, calendars and other objects in order to change the way Windows looks. To a skinning enthusiast this amount of power, flexibility and choice is nirvana.
Setting aside the large group of Windows users who don’t care about customizing at all, there’s probably a larger group of users who’d love to choose from among a personalized set of Windows themes just by clicking a button. THAT is the ideal for this more typical group of users. The current state of skinning would overwhelm this group in terms of cost, time and complexity. What you may think of as an adequate solution--premium suites--only reaches part of the way to the ideal.
Scoff if you will, but the skinning ideal that would appeal to tens of millions as opposed to hundreds of thousands is probably something along the lines of selecting Display Properties/Themes and then choosing from among scores of comprehensive themes that instantly appear in your list after download for free or starting at 99 cents each (economies of scale) from numerous independent theme sites.
If Stardock can provide something approaching this ideal before Microsoft, its business would grow much larger than it is now. Millions of custom theme consumers would drive hundreds of thousands more to the now more lucrative hobby/career of skinning.
That’s my theory and I’m sticking too it; unless of course someone offers a different analysis that I like.